A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
