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At first, Trump gave the impression to embrace a firm approach concerning Ukraine. After issuing statements of "significant consequences" last August if Russia's president carried on obstructing truce talks, the former president finally enacted major penalties on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly hindered the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

However, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian representatives excluding Ukrainian or EU involvement, he has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Invasion

Trump's proposal would essentially reward the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democratic system in peril. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative actually undermine that very sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business past, the former president seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic territorial dispute, implying handing Russia a section of Ukraine's land will appease the president. However, Russia's war is not only about occupying a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and Putin's apparent desire to destroy it so it no longer serves as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Land Giveaways

While maintaining in status the already split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's initiative would require Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk region. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in over a lengthy period of conflict, this concession would leave Ukrainian defenses dangerously compromised.

This region is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the entrenched defensive positions that are a key barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, leaving Putin a open route to the capital in case he eventually opt to restart the war.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would make renewed conflict more feasible for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to reduce the size of its troops from their existing large number soldiers to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Notably, the proposal sets no similar limits on Russian forces.

Apparently as a concession to Russia's attempts to portray the nation's chosen by the people administration as Nazis, the proposal states: "Any radical doctrine and actions must be condemned and prohibited." Apparently to underscore this element, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. However, the proposal imposes no requirement that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative includes Russia promise not to "invade bordering nations" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of non-violence towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". But considering that Putin has broken similar accords in the previous instances – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia pledged to honor the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a handback of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to the government – how should anyone trust Russia this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on international protection assurances. Although the proposal threatens a "decisive joint armed reaction" should Russia renew its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the details vary from fuzzy to troubling. The initiative would not only prevent Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit alliance nations from deploying military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thereby blocking the security presence, likely commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to prevent Putin from restoring his weakened military, rearming, and attacking again.

World Concern

A separate supplementary accord according to sources would provide the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "serious, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. But unlike a capable national defense – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional invasion – the credibility of the side agreement would depend on the willingness of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to react through arms to Russia's aggression, a response they have {not